Features of the demographic situation in the regions of Georgia

Abstract

Relevance of the topic. The selection of the demographic situation in the regions of Georgia as the object of empirical research was determined by several reasons. In particular, a) significant disparities in the demographic situation between the regions of Georgia and b) the increase in the number of regions in the so-called depopulation regime and/or with the potential to transition to it. Methodology and methods used. What factors determine the demographic characteristics of regions? This is a question that needs to be answered. Especially since in recent years, there has been a clear shortage of scientific research on the mentioned topic in Georgia. The study was based on the analysis of secondary sources (content analysis of official documents related to the demographic situation in the regions), the scientific literature on the issue under study, and information available in scientific electronic databases. The information base consisted of statistical data found in open sources of the National Statistics Office. According to the modern administrative-territorial division of Georgia, the geographical scope of the study encompasses all regions of Georgia (except for the temporarily occupied Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia regions), and the chronological framework spans the years 2012-2022. Statistical, cartographic, and geo-information systems (GIS), as well as content analysis and comparative analysis methods, were employed as the primary research methods. To study the demographic situation in the regions, 10 indicators were analyzed (general fertility rate, number of live births, number of stillbirths, general mortality rate, infant mortality rate, natural increase rate, marriage rate, average age of marriage, divorce rate, and physical population density). To better understand the issue, the demographic situation in the regions was studied separately at both the urban and rural levels, resulting in a classification of the regions according to the indicators above. Research results and findings. The majority of Georgia's population resides in Tbilisi. In 2012, this figure accounted for 29.2% of the total population; in 2017, it increased to 30.7%; and by 2022, it had risen to 32.6%. After Tbilisi, the largest number of inhabitants was recorded in Imereti. The lowest figure in terms of population share was in Racha-Lechkhumi and Lower Svaneti. In 2012, the highest and nearly identical birth rates were recorded in Kvemo Kartli, Adjara, and Tbilisi. Between 2012 and 2017, the number of live births in Georgia's regions increased slightly. In Tbilisi, this rate was almost twice as high as in Imereti. Notably, in 2022, the number of live births decreased in all regions of Georgia (except Adjara) and fell below the 2012 level. A trend of decreasing stillbirths was observed in all regions of Georgia, except Tbilisi. In addition, between 2012 and 2017, the number of stillbirths in the regions, mainly in rural settlements, significantly exceeded that in urban settlements. Since 2022, the share of urban settlements has been increasing and is already ahead of rural settlements in Shida Kartli, Samtskhe-Javakheti, Imereti, and Adjara. There are no sharp changes in the general mortality rate in the regions of Georgia. High mortality rates were observed in Racha-Lechkhumi and Lower Svaneti. The dynamics of the infant mortality rate show a decreasing trend except for Mtskheta-Mtianeti. Except for Tbilisi, the natural increase in all regions increased until 2017. Then a decreasing trend is observed. In all regions of Georgia, except Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo Svaneti, a decrease in the marriage rate is observed. Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo Svaneti are the only regions in Georgia where the marriage rate in 2022 was higher than in 2012. In 2012 and 2017, except for Adjara, the marriage rate was higher in cities than in rural areas in all regions. In 2022, the marriage rate in rural settlements increased and surpassed the urban settlement rates in Tbilisi, Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo Svaneti, Shida Kartli, Kvemo Kartli and Samtskhe-Javakheti. During the study period, a trend of increasing average age of married men was observed in all regions of Georgia. The average age of marriage among women was lower than that of men, although a growing trend was observed. For example, in Tbilisi, this indicator increased from 28.6 years to 32.3 years during the reporting period. During the study period, the divorce rate increased in all regions of Georgia. The largest increase was observed in the Imereti region. The urban population is largest after Tbilisi in Adjara (55-58%), while the smallest is in Racha-Lechkhumi and Lower Svaneti (21-24%). The highest population density is recorded in Tbilisi, where more than 2,000 people live per square kilometre. This figure is almost 20 times higher than the second-highest density region, Adjara. Conclusion. Based on the identified trends, we can conclude that regional demographic differences can generally be explained by their level of urbanization and emigration (the analysis of which is beyond the scope of this study), which varies significantly by region. Tbilisi, Imereti, and Adjara are the most densely populated and urbanised regions, and they have relatively better demographic indicators (although Imereti does not fit into this trend). At the same time, a group of regions has been identified where the population is rapidly decreasing and approaching the depopulation stage. This trend is most noticeable in the high-mountainous regions, where the primary demographic indicators have deteriorated significantly. Finally, the absence of data on interregional population flows and migration has complicated the presentation of a more or less complete demographic picture of the regions.