Modern transformations in the marital structure of the Georgian population

Abstract

In the context of contemporary political crises, one of the critical components of ongoing social transformations is reflected in the profound and systematic shifts in population demographic behavior. These processes are principally driven by structural changes occurring in contemporary global fertility processes. While global discourse continues to emphasize the challenges associated with rapid population growth, Georgia, by contrast, faces the opposite demographic concern—a persistent decline in population size, a reduction in birth rates. In this context, the dynamics of birth rates are closely linked to the institution of marriage, which remains one of the most significant determinants of fertility and overall population reproduction. Accordingly, the analysis of transformations in marital structures is of particular scholarly relevance, while, at the same time, it is urgent for the state to develop appropriate measures. Within the broader framework of population reproduction, the marital structure of the population under study constitutes a critical component, operating alongside other key demographic processes, including fertility, mortality, and migration. As is well established, the marital structure of any population does not constitute a fixed and immutable system of proportions; rather, it is subject to continuous change and transformation. In turn, these transformations in marital structure may follow divergent trajectories, exhibiting expansionary, contractionary, or fluctuating patterns over time. Given that the majority of live births in the country occur within registered marriages, this has resulted in a direct and statistically significant relationship between the number of registered marriages and the number of live births. The marital structure of the population comprises two principal categories: married and unmarried individuals. The latter group is further differentiated into those who have never been married, the divorced (or separated), and the widowed. A differentiated analysis of marital status is necessitated by the fact that each of these categories exerts a distinct and heterogeneous influence on the demographic development of a country. Increasing attention is devoted to the study of never-married individuals, as they are often conceptualized as a demographic reserve whose reproductive potential remains, to a significant extent, unrealized. Regrettably, insufficient scholarly attention has been devoted to the study of such a marital status as widowhood. However, in light of ongoing demographic aging and the relative rejuvenation of mortality patterns, this issue is likely to gain increasing relevance in the future. As both the absolute and relative prevalence of widowhood rise, the country’s reproductive potential correspondingly declines—an outcome of particular significance under conditions of demographic crisis. The primary objective of this study, therefore, is to provide a statistical and demographic analysis of the population’s marital categories. One of the notable achievements of modern society is that, unlike in earlier historical periods, the overwhelming majority of individuals now enter into marriage voluntarily. However, when considering the termination of marriage (as distinct from divorce), additional factors come into play beyond individual volition. Specifically, the dissolution of marriage may occur either through the will of the spouses or independently of it. In the former case—when the termination of marriage depends on the mutual decision of the spouses—the marriage ends in divorce, and both individuals subsequently re-enter the category of the unmarried (more precisely, the previously married). In this status, they retain the opportunity to re-engage with the “marriage market” with the intention of forming a new family. According to the statistical and demographic study conducted by the authors, the marital structure of the population of Georgia is characterized by the following features: Over the period 2005–2017, the dynamics of registered marriages in Georgia evolved as follows: over the period under analysis, the minimum number of registered marriages was recorded in 2003, amounting to 12,696, while the peak was observed in 2012, reaching 34,693. Overall, during the period 2000–2025, the number of registered marriages in Georgia, expressed in relative terms (per 1,000 population), declined from 21,908 to 21,653, representing a decrease of 255 units. Given that the majority of live births occur within registered marriages—and that births within such unions have been steadily declining—the overall birth rate has consequently exhibited a downward trend. The deterioration of the sex-age structure of Georgia’s population has contributed to a steady increase in the average age at marriage, which exhibits a persistent upward trend. Over the period 1994–2025, the mean age at marriage reached 35 years for men and 32.6 years for women. During the period under analysis, the minimum number of registered marriages was recorded in 2003, amounting to 12,696, while the maximum was observed in 2012, reaching 34,693. A more precise indicator of marital dynamics is provided by the general marriage rate, which reflects the overall incidence of participation in registered marriages. Thus, the study and analysis of the structure of registered marriages carry considerable practical significance, underscoring the need for a differentiated approach. The statistical evidence presented is further complemented by data from the 2024 Population Census. Based on this analysis, the authors have developed a set of policy recommendations, which are proposed to relevant state authorities and encompass immediate, medium-term, as well as long-term measures.